Preseason Rankings
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#171
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#217
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#151
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.8% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 31.8% 47.7% 21.3%
.500 or above in Conference 51.2% 62.0% 44.1%
Conference Champion 5.6% 8.1% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.1% 5.2% 11.6%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round4.5% 6.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 44 - 210 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 177   @ Lipscomb L 75-78 40%    
  Nov 18, 2019 172   @ Coastal Carolina L 72-75 39%    
  Nov 21, 2019 11   Villanova L 59-76 6%    
  Nov 30, 2019 80   Belmont L 74-79 34%    
  Dec 07, 2019 119   @ Murray St. L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 14, 2019 51   @ Mississippi L 66-80 11%    
  Dec 21, 2019 115   St. Bonaventure L 65-66 45%    
  Dec 29, 2019 86   Rhode Island L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 02, 2020 139   @ Old Dominion L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 04, 2020 276   @ Charlotte W 67-64 58%    
  Jan 09, 2020 188   Marshall W 82-78 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 76   Western Kentucky L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 16, 2020 163   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 18, 2020 185   @ Florida International L 82-84 43%    
  Jan 23, 2020 116   Louisiana Tech L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 25, 2020 238   Southern Miss W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 30, 2020 169   @ UTEP L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 121   @ Texas San Antonio L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 06, 2020 152   North Texas W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 229   Rice W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 12, 2020 140   @ UAB L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 15, 2020 140   UAB W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 9 - 13 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.8 1.7 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.3 4.2 3.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.4 0.8 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.1 2.5 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 4.4 0.5 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 5.0 1.4 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.9 0.2 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.4 0.5 6.9 12th
13th 0.3 1.8 2.9 1.0 0.0 6.1 13th
14th 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 4.5 14th
Total 0.4 1.9 3.8 6.9 9.7 12.5 13.5 13.8 12.3 9.7 7.2 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-1 98.1% 0.9    0.7 0.1 0.0
12-2 76.1% 1.7    1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-3 41.4% 2.0    0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-4 10.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.3% 70.3% 48.5% 21.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 42.2%
13-1 0.9% 42.0% 28.8% 13.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 18.6%
12-2 2.2% 30.2% 25.0% 5.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 7.0%
11-3 4.8% 18.1% 16.5% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1.9%
10-4 7.2% 12.8% 12.6% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.3%
9-5 9.7% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.0%
8-6 12.3% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.0%
7-7 13.8% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.5
6-8 13.5% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.4
5-9 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5
4-10 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 9.7
3-11 6.9% 6.9
2-12 3.8% 3.8
1-13 1.9% 1.9
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 95.3 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%